Cities to Watch: El Niño Travel Risk by Destination

Flash flooding hit several southern Lima districts (Villa El Salvador, Villa María del Triunfo, Chorrillos, San Juan de Miraflores) on August 17, 2026, damaging at least 56 homes. Peru’s national weather service attributed that specific event to local humidity and wind patterns rather than El Niño directly.

Forecasters are flagging a “strong” to “extraordinary” El Niño Costero event as likely for Peru’s summer season, roughly December 2026 through March 2027 — the window that historically brings the heaviest coastal flooding risk.

As of September 2026, Kenya’s Meteorological Department has warned that El Niño-enhanced short rains starting in October could put roughly 100,000 Nairobi households at flood risk, with several of the city’s roads already flagged for a history of flooding under heavy rain.

Past strong El Niño events have driven flooding that displaced more than 200,000 people across East Africa and triggered waterborne disease outbreaks in affected areas.

Water levels at Victoria Falls swing significantly by month and year even outside El Niño years, and current reports for the 2026 season are mixed. Check the Zambezi River Authority’s published flow data close to your travel dates rather than relying on a general seasonal assumption.

During the 2015–16 El Niño, roughly 2.4 million people in Zimbabwe — about 26% of the population at the time — faced food insecurity as regional drought deepened.

As of early September 2026, the worst of Indonesia’s El Niño-driven fires and haze are concentrated in Kalimantan and Sumatra — more than 200,000 hectares burned nationally, with air quality in Pontianak, West Kalimantan reaching hazardous levels. Bali itself has not been named in current fire or haze reporting, but regional smoke has drifted as far as Malaysia and the Philippines during peak dry-season weeks.

Indonesia’s dry-season fires have repeatedly closed national parks and triggered regional smoke haze in past El Niño years, with the 2015 season standing as the worst on record.

No specific 2026–27 bleaching figures have been published yet at the time of writing. El Niño doesn’t cause coral bleaching directly, but the marine heatwaves it raises the odds of are a leading trigger — worth checking official reef condition reports before booking a reef-focused trip.

Nine of the ten driest winter-spring periods in southeast Australia have occurred during El Niño events, and the 2015–16 event coincided with the worst Great Barrier Reef bleaching on record.

India’s Meteorological Department downgraded its 2026 monsoon forecast to about 90% of the long-period average — below normal — with regional disparities expected to be more severe in some interior areas than on the coast.

Of 16 El Niño events since 1950, roughly 7 significantly disrupted the Indian monsoon. Effects vary considerably by year and region, and coastal cities like Mumbai don’t always track the national average.

Meteorologists are forecasting up to 50% more precipitation than average for parts of Southern California this winter, tied to the same El Niño-strengthened jet stream pattern that’s steering more storms across the southern US.

Strong El Niño winters have historically brought wetter conditions to the Southwest and Gulf Coast, while Atlantic hurricane seasons during El Niño years tend to run quieter.