El Niño Travel Updates
A running log of what’s changed, sourced and dated — newest first. This page tracks official advisories and reporting as they’re issued; it doesn’t replace checking conditions for your specific destination on the Destination Risk Map or running your dates through the Trip Risk Calculator.
Page last updated: September 12, 2026
NOAA issues ENSO updates monthly; the next is expected in early October 2026. This page will be updated when it’s issued.
See current conditionsNOAA raises the odds: 75% chance of a historic El Niño this winter
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center strengthened its outlook in its September 10 advisory, reporting eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface anomalies above +3.0°C and a 75% chance that October–December 2026 will exceed the strength of every El Niño event on record since 1950.
The update raises the bar from August’s already-strong outlook: NOAA now puts the odds of a very strong event this Northern Hemisphere fall and winter above 90%, with the discussion explicitly noting that El Niño “strengthened further over the past month” across multiple ocean-temperature indices. Nothing here changes the guidance already on the Advisory Hub — it confirms the same trend continuing, faster.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued September 10, 2026
WMO chief: this El Niño could be “off the charts”
World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the current event, if its trajectory holds, “may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began — so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.”
The WMO put its confidence that El Niño will persist through February 2027 at “nearly 100 percent” — the highest certainty the organization has expressed for an El Niño forecast. Its bulletin flagged intensified drought risk for the Amazon, Indonesia, and Australia, and disrupted monsoon patterns for India, alongside widespread extreme heat and elevated flooding risk elsewhere. Ocean temperature anomalies were measured at 2.2–2.6°C above average in the eastern Pacific as of mid-August, with some subsurface readings over 8°C above normal.
Source: Al Jazeera, “UN warns El Niño could be ‘off the charts’, strongest in decades”, September 3, 2026
Kenya flags 100,000 Nairobi households at flood risk ahead of October rains
Kenya’s Meteorological Department warned that El Niño-enhanced short rains beginning in October could put roughly 100,000 Nairobi households at risk of flooding, with several city roads already flagged for a known history of flooding in heavy rain.
This is a forecast tied to the October–December short-rains window, not a current flooding event. Travelers routing through Nairobi in that window should check road conditions before overland connections. See the Cities to Watch page for the full city-level breakdown.
Source: Daily Nation / NTV Kenya, “El Niño: 100,000 households in Nairobi to be affected,” September 2026
Indonesia haze crisis concentrated in Kalimantan and Sumatra, drifting regionally
More than 200,000 hectares have burned across Indonesia this fire season, with air quality in Pontianak, West Kalimantan reaching hazardous levels and smoke haze reaching as far as Malaysia and the Philippines.
Current reporting has not named Bali specifically in the fire or haze coverage — the crisis is concentrated in Kalimantan and Sumatra. Officials expect September to be the toughest month for firefighting crews as dry-season conditions peak. Travelers to any Indonesian destination should check regional air quality indexes close to departure, since haze can shift with wind patterns.
Source: ABC News, “Indonesian wildfires spurred by super El Niño choke South-East Asia,” September 2026
Forecasters name the US winter travel destinations most likely to see disruption
Southern California and the Southwest are being flagged as the US regions most likely to see frequent, significant winter rain as El Niño strengthens the southern storm track — with one forecaster telling Newsweek “that area, I would try to avoid.”
By contrast, the Intermountain West (Denver, Utah’s Wasatch Mountains, California’s Sierra Nevada) is expected to see favorable snow conditions, and far southern Florida (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, the Keys) is expected to see comparatively good weather. This is a seasonal forecast for winter 2026–27, not a current condition — treat it as a planning input, not a guarantee for any specific week.
Source: Newsweek, “Super El Niño: Map Shows Best and Worst US States To Travel to This Winter”, August 19, 2026
Flash flooding hits southern Lima districts
Flash flooding damaged at least 56 homes across several southern Lima districts on August 17, with Peru’s national weather service attributing the event to local humidity and wind patterns rather than El Niño directly.
Separately, forecasters are flagging a “strong” to “extraordinary” El Niño Costero event as likely for Peru’s coastal summer season, roughly December 2026 through March 2027 — the window that has historically brought the heaviest coastal flooding risk. The August 17 event is a data point on current infrastructure strain, not confirmation of that forecast.
Source: The Rio Times, “Lima floods: A few mm of rain exposes a city not built for water,” August 2026
NOAA issues El Niño Advisory, greater than 90% chance of a very strong event
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its El Niño Advisory on August 13, 2026, stating a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27, with a 69% probability of an exceptionally strong event exceeding +2.5°C for October–December.
July’s Niño-3.4 index reading reached +1.4°C, with subsurface temperature anomalies as high as +10.0°C at depth — this advisory is the baseline that every later update on this page has built on and strengthened.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued August 13, 2026
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